Summary

I used historical United States name data to predict the top ten ranking names for 2024. Both data trends and onomastics, the study of names, were helpful in creating predictions. When 2024 data was released, I came seventh most accurate in the competition I entered.

Name Derby

My favorite name website, behindthename.com, allows users to play a rank prediction game every year. The goal is to predict the top ten boy and top ten girl names in the United States with the most accuracy. Points are awarded for getting the rank exactly right, as well as being within three ranks. I entered this competition for the first time to predict the top names of 2024 using past data. I was very excited for 2024 name data as it is generally agreed that 2024 will be the end of Gen Alpha births and Gen Beta begins in 2025.

Using 2023 Names

The first step was to look at the top 12 names of 2023 and look at the trends of those names over the last few years. I created a graph of the girls names and one for the boys names so I could look at which names were increasing and which names were decreasing. I only needed to predict the top ten, but I knew it was possible that a new name could enter the top ten.

Top 12 boy and girl names in 2023 used to predict rankings

Girl Name Predictions

Throghout the previous generations, the popular girls names are far more indicative of a certain time, so I knew the girls would be easy. I am certain the top two will remain Olivia and Emma for a few more years, but I also think Amelia has the right sounds to become a Gen Beta defining name and I believed it would jump to third, pushing Charlotte to fourth. Sophia and Mia are very close together and I knew they could switch, given Mia jumped up slightly in 2023, but I thought they would remain in that order. Isabella and Ava were both trending downward while Evelyn was fairly steady, but Ava was declining fastest. This led me to believe 7, 8, and 9 would be Isabella, Evelyn, Ava. For the tenth name, Harper has been downtrending and, as I'd read in name forums, Luna seemed to have had its blip in the top ten and would likely drop out. Since Sofia had been increasing, I thought it could jump into the top ten.

Boy Name Predictions

Boys names are more difficult to predict. The top three would certainly remain Liam, Noah, then Oliver, but the others are so close together. Mateo has had a very sharp rise over the last few years, so I thought it could jump to fourth. James and Elijah are very close, but I thought they would stay at 5 and 6. While Theodore had been increasing, it flattened out in 2023, so I predicted it would stay at 7. Henry and Lucas only differed by 106 babies in 2023, but given Henry started to decrease, I thought Lucas would move up one. Finally, there is more of a difference between William, Benjamin, and Levi, so I believed William would stay at 10.

Results

I entered my predictions online and came 7th most accuracte in behindthename.com's prediction game out of over 100 participants. Below is my score for 2024. I almost had the girls names perfect, but Sophia and Mia did switch. I was wrong about Mateo going to fourth when it actually fell to seventh. Theodore jumped to fourth instead and Elijah fell to eighth. Still, I am happy with how accurate the predictions were based mostly on the past trends and understanding what sounds are popular now and I am certainly going to try again to predict the top names of 2025.

My results in the prediction game

Graphs Through 2024

Once the data was released, I remade the graphs of the top names of 2023 but through 2024. This allowed me to see what really happened to each name in 2024 and I can use these new graphs to predict the top names of 2025.

Top 12 boy and girl names in 2023 graphed through 2024, showcasing rank differences

Predicting Name Ranks

Using Data to Predict Name Popularity